Some consumers around the world may be starting to feel cautiously optimistic about the economy and their own financial situations, as I wrote last week. That’s partly because, though many consumer goods prices remain higher than they were just three to five years ago, at least they’re not still rising. That’s certainly the case with pet food in the U.S.
In fact, for several months now, month-over-month changes in U.S. pet food prices have been decreases: In September 2024, they declined 0.3% from the previous month and 0.9% from the same month a year ago (year over year, or YOY). That was after the August data showed pet food prices falling 0.4% from July 2024 and the same decrease YOY.
All the data come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, compiled and analyzed by John Gibbons of PetBusinessProfessor.com. It indicates an even more positive picture than that for the overall U.S. consumer price index (CPI).
Pet food inflation better than other pet products, services
To be sure, the recent good news can’t obscure that pet food prices in September were still nearly 23% higher than three years ago (September 2021) and almost 24% higher than September 2019, pre-pandemic, which definitely hurts some pet owners and retailers. “Inflation is cumulative,” Gibbons always emphasizes.
But the recent declines in pet food prices contribute to lower prices for many consumer goods and help balance out those subcategories where pet owners are still having to bear the brunt of higher inflation. Take, for example, pet services (grooming and the like); in September 2024, prices were 7.3% higher YOY. Veterinary services were up 6.7% YOY. Longer range, inflation for both subcategories looks even worse: over 28% and 38%, respectively, versus September 2019.
Meanwhile, prices for pets and supplies (sale of pet animals plus pet products other than consumables) decreased 0.5% from August 2024 and were up just 1.5% YOY in September; and the historical price increases are much more tolerable, 12.1% versus September 2021 and 11.3% versus 2019. For the entire pet care market, what Gibbons calls “petflation” stood at -0.4% compared to August 2024 and +2.1% YOY in September 2024. Measured against September 2019, prices for the overall category are up more than 25%, driven by those higher long-term increases for pet food and the service subcategories.
Improvement over time, but still higher long term
Like all other consumers, pet owners have to feed themselves and their human family members, in addition to the furry ones. Prices on that front are also looking better; in September, prices for “food at home” (groceries, essentially) were up slightly from the month before (0.4%) and 1.3% higher YOY. Historically, these human food prices are comparable to those for pet food, at over 19% versus September 2021 and more than 26% versus September 2019.
And both pet food and human food inflation are starting to look better than the overall U.S. CPI, which came in at 2.4% YOY in September 2024. The CPI is up 16.5% versus 2021 and 22.7% versus 2019.
All these data are much better than the inflation levels we were seeing 12 to 18 months ago — especially for pet food, which at one point was far outpacing the CPI and food at home. In another positive move, all the long-range comparisons to 2021 and 2019 have also started to decrease. Yet it’s unrealistic to expect that pet food prices, or those for any products or services, will ever fall completely back to their previous levels.
