In June 2024, pet prices were up 0.3% from May, according to John Gibbons of PetBusinessProfessor.com in his June report.
“‘Petflation’ rose to 2.0%, up from 1.6% in May, but it is still 33% below the National rate,” said Gibbons. “In January 2024, it was +52%.”
The national year over year monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate of 3.0% is down from 3.3% and equal to the 22>23 rate but only 33% of 21>22.
In June, pet food prices were 0.7% from May. And -0.2% from June 2023.
The inflation surge from 21>24 provided 104% of the overall inflation since 2019. “This happened because Pet Products prices in 2021 were still recovering from a deflationary period,” stated Gibbons.
2022 compared to 2024
• U.S. CPI – Prices are +0.03% from May. The YOY increase is 3.0%, down from 3.3%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are still 50+% higher than the target. After 12 straight declines, we had 2 lifts, a stable month, 2 consecutive drops and now 4 of 7 with drops – a little better. The current rate is equal to 22>23 but the 21>24 rate is still +15.6%, 68.7% of the total inflation since 2019. Inflation was low in June 2021.
• Pet food – Prices are +0.7% vs May and -0.2% vs June 23, up from -1.1%. They are still significantly below the Food at Home inflation rate, +1.1%. The YOY drop of -0.2% is being measured against a time when prices were 23.1% above the 2019 level and the current decrease is still less than the -0.7% drop from 2019 to 2020. The 2021>2024 inflation surge has generated 98.7% of the total 23.4% inflation since 2019.
YTD -- 2022 compared to 2024
• U.S. CPI – The 23>24 rate is 3.2%, down from 3.3% in May, but also down 35% from 22>23 and 61% less than 21>22. It is also 24% below the average YOY increase from 2019>2024, but it’s still 52% more than the average annual increase from 2018>2021. 76% of the 22.7% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>24. Inflation is a big problem that started recently.
• Pet food – YTD inflation is 1.3%, down from 1.6% in May and 91% less than the 22>23 rate. Now, it is also 80% lower than 21>22 and 24% below the average rate from 2018>2020. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate on the chart and remains in second place in the 21>24 rates. Deflation in the first half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then prices surged in 2022 and especially in 2023. 95% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>24.
Update: Pet food producer price index (PPI)
The retail price changes usually mirror the dog and cat PPI but lag slightly. They peaked in May 23, fell slightly in Jun>Aug, turned up in Sep/Oct, flattened in Nov, fell in Dec>Feb, turned up in March, and fell in Apr>May, then rose in June. There was a 0.9% PPI lift in February but stability in Mar>Jun. Despite a minor lift in June, the PPI in the Other Pet Food segment continues to deflate.
Dog canned/wet food is the primary driver in the PPI surge, including a small February 2024 lift, according to Gibbons.
Prices only increased <1% since March 2023, showing 15 months of stability.
Pet Food Retail CPI is -0.2% from June 2023, and 0.7% versus May 2024.
The “Other pet food” category is -7.5% from June 2023. The category continues to fall over time, in comparison to the 7.8% from June 2021 and 23.9% from June 2019.
“All but canned and dry dog food have converged around 30+% from Dec 19,” stated Gibbons. “Was the small Feb increase the Spring lift starting even earlier than in 23? Normally, the lift starts in May, lasts for 2 months then prices stabilize for 8 months. In 23, a one-month lift happened in March and prices were stable for 10 months.”
